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Prediction for CME (2024-07-16T23:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-16T23:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32005/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M1.9 flare from AR 3744 (approx. N18W11) with peak time 2024-07-16T22:06Z. EUV wave, opening field lines, and dimming are best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is not visible in STEREO A EUV imagery due to a data gap from 2024-07-16T13:35Z to 23:35Z. While there is some field line opening associated with another M-class flare shortly beforehand, M1.6 with peak time 2024-07-16T21:24Z, the broad area of dimming is more clearly associated with this later M1.9 flare. No clear CME arrival signature seen in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-20T08:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Two CME simulation

SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

Notes:
CME #1 - CME 2024-07-16T23:23:00-CME-001
CME Event ID: B0947
Start Date/Time: 2024-07-17 04:12Z 
Latitude: 1°
Longitude: -16°
Half Angle: 35°
Radial Velocity: 632 km/s

CME #2 - CME 2024-07-16T23:12:00-CME-001
CME Event ID: B0948
Start Date/Time: 2024-07-17 07:22Z 
Latitude: -12°
Longitude: 2°
Half Angle: 44°
Radial Velocity: 395 km/s


Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Jul 17 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity
... Region 3753 (N11W50, Dai/beta) produced a M1.6/1N flare at 16/2124
UTC, and Region 3744 (N16W30, Cao/beta) responded with a M1.9 flare at
16/2206 UTC. Type II and IV radio sweeps were reported by USAF
observatories in association with the M1.9 flare event. However, both of
these flares appear have to produced faint shock as observed by SOHO
LASCO C2 imagery first seen just before 16/2312 UTC. Modeling of these
events suggests mostly shock arrival first by midday on 20 Jul followed
by a second shock arrival early on the 21st.
Lead Time: 73.58 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2024-07-17T06:25Z
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